Tracking Population-Level Anxiety Using Search Engine Data: Ecological Study.

BACKGROUND: Anxiety disorders are the most prevalent mental disorders globally, with a substantial impact on quality of life. The prevalence of anxiety disorders has increased substantially following the COVID-19 pandemic, and it is likely to be further affected by a global economic recession. Understanding anxiety themes and how they change over time and across countries is crucial for preventive and treatment strategies. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to track the trends in anxiety themes between 2004 and 2020 in the 50 most populous countries with high volumes of internet search data. This study extends previous research by using a novel search-based methodology and including a longer time span and more countries at different income levels. METHODS: We used a crowdsourced questionnaire, alongside Bing search query data and Google Trends search volume data, to identify themes associated with anxiety disorders across 50 countries from 2004 to 2020. We analyzed themes and their mutual interactions and investigated the associations between countries' socioeconomic attributes and anxiety themes using time-series linear models. This study was approved by the Microsoft Research Institutional Review Board. RESULTS: Query volume for anxiety themes was highly stable in countries from 2004 to 2019 (Spearman r=0.89) and moderately correlated with geography (r=0.49 in 2019). Anxiety themes were predominantly long-term and personal, with "having kids," "pregnancy," and "job" the most voluminous themes in most countries and years. In 2020, "COVID-19" became a dominant theme in 27 countries. Countries with a constant volume of anxiety themes over time had lower fragile state indexes (P=.007) and higher individualism (P=.003). An increase in the volume of the most searched anxiety themes was associated with a reduction in the volume of the remaining themes in 13 countries and an increase in 17 countries, and these 30 countries had a lower prevalence of mental disorders (P<.001) than the countries where no correlations were found. CONCLUSIONS: Internet search data could be a potential source for predicting the country-level prevalence of anxiety disorders, especially in understudied populations or when an in-person survey is not viable.

Assessing the prevalence of young children living in households prepared for COVID-19 in 56 low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic and governments' attempts to contain it are negatively affecting young children's health and development in ways we are only beginning to understand and measure. Responses to the pandemic are driven largely by confining children and families to their homes. This study aims to assess the levels of and associated socioeconomic disparities in household preparedness for protecting young children under the age of five from being exposed to communicable diseases, such as COVID-19, in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: Using data from nationally representative household surveys in 56 LMICs since 2016, we estimated the percentages of young children under the age of five living in households prepared for communicable diseases (e.g., COVID-19) and associated residential and wealth disparities at the country- and aggregate-level. Preparedness was defined on the basis of space for quarantine, adequacy of toilet facilities and hand hygiene, mass media exposure at least once a week, and phone ownership. Disparities within countries were measured as the absolute gap in two domains-household wealth and residential area - and compared across regions and country income groups. RESULTS: The final data set included 766,313 children under age five. On average, 19.4% of young children in the 56 countries lived in households prepared for COVID-19, ranging from 0.6% in Ethiopia in 2016 to 70.9% in Tunisia in 2018. In close to 90% of countries (50), fewer than 50% of young children lived in prepared households. Young children in rural areas or in the poorest households were less likely to live in prepared households than their counterparts. CONCLUSIONS: A large portion of young children under the age of five in LMICs were living in households that did not meet all preparedness guidelines for preventing COVID-19 and caring for patients at home. This study highlights the need to ensure all families in LMICs have the means to prevent the spread of the pandemic or other communicable illnesses to young children during pandemics.

Assessing costs of developing a digital program for training community health workers to deliver treatment for depression: A case study in rural India.

Digital technology has emerged as a promising approach for training and building capacity of community health workers in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Little is known about the cost of developing digital training programs in LMICs, which hinders the adoption, implementation, and scaling up of the programs in routine primary care settings. This study assessed the costs of developing a digital program for training community health workers to deliver a psychological treatment for depression in a rural district of Madhya Pradesh, India. We developed survey instruments to document required resources in development, including involved personnel (their roles, responsibilities, time spent, and salaries or payments), information technologies (e.g., smartphones, software programs), and infrastructure-related costs (e.g., vehicle, office space, utilities). Costs were estimated from an accounting perspective. Over a 10-month developmental period, the total costs were 208,814 USD, with the largest portion on human resources (61%, with 14% on management and supervision), followed by information technologies (33%), and infrastructure-related costs (6%). These findings could inform policymakers in LMICs on costs of developing online-training programs, which will be especially useful during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Measuring and forecasting progress in education: what about early childhood?

A recent Nature article modelled within-country inequalities in primary, secondary, and tertiary education and forecast progress towards Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets related to education (SDG 4). However, their paper entirely overlooks inequalities in achieving Target 4.2, which aims to achieve universal access to quality early childhood development, care and preschool education by 2030. This is an important omission because of the substantial brain, cognitive and socioemotional developments that occur in early life and because of increasing evidence of early-life learning's large impacts on subsequent education and lifetime wellbeing. We provide an overview of this evidence and use new analyses to illustrate medium- and long-term implications of early learning, first by presenting associations between pre-primary programme participation and adolescent mathematics and science test scores in 73 countries and secondly, by estimating the costs of inaction (not making pre-primary programmes universal) in terms of forgone lifetime earnings in 134 countries. We find considerable losses, comparable to or greater than current governmental expenditures on all education (as percentages of GDP), particularly in low- and lower-middle-income countries. In addition to improving primary, secondary and tertiary schooling, we conclude that to attain SDG 4 and reduce inequalities in a post-COVID era, it is essential to prioritize quality early childhood care and education, including adopting policies that support families to promote early learning and their children's education.

Global estimates of the implications of COVID-19-related preprimary school closures for children's instructional access, development, learning, and economic wellbeing.

Observational data collected prior to the pandemic (between 2004 and 2019) were used to simulate the potential consequences of early childhood care and education (ECCE) service closures on the estimated 167 million preprimary-age children in 196 countries who lost ECCE access between March 2020 and February 2021. COVID-19-related ECCE disruptions were estimated to result in 19.01 billion person-days of ECCE instruction lost, 10.75 million additional children falling "off track" in their early development, 14.18 million grades of learning lost by adolescence, and a present discounted value of USD 308.02 billion of earnings lost in adulthood. Further burdens associated with ongoing closures were also forecasted. Projected developmental and learning losses were concentrated in low- and lower middle-income countries, likely exacerbating long-standing global inequities.